Category Archives: Education

A brief history of the Polish inflation after 1984

Inflation and hyperinflation – what they are, what they are not

Inflation is an increase of the amount of money in circulation. Hyperinflation is simply very high inflation, which usually occurs at the last stage of fiduciary currency. Just before the collapse of paper money, there is most frequently a period of a highly dynamic growth of the amount of money in circulation. Consequently, it leads to an equally sharp rise in prices because a greater amount of money follows the same amount of goods. In a nutshell, newly issued money does not have cover in real goods. It has become customary to think that hyperinflation starts when prices increase by at least 50% in one month. On the other hand, we can talk about high inflation when the growth of money amount reaches the rate of 5% in a year.

Historically, gold was the best measure of inflation. Today the gold ore is also treated as the only currency that has no counterparty risk and that is why it was used in this study as an objective measure of inflation.
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Long-term profitability of Bitcoin protocol

Assumptions

  1. The Bitcoin ecosystem must remain stable and profitable for all agents engaged in its day-to-day operations with no extra incentive except transaction (Tx) fees.
  2. Long term means after year 2040, when block reward will be 0 BTC (currently at 50 BTC).
  3. Maximum Bitcoin Tx fee should not exceed 1% of transaction volume. Otherwise it will not be competitive with current fiat-money transaction systems.
  4. Miners’ expect positive average operating profit margin, so let us assume a minimum of 1%. Currently at 29% +/- 30% [i]
  5. Current exchange rates: BTC/EUR 8.39 and BTC/USD 10.74

Let us evaluate current long-term Bitcoin profitability in light of  those assumptions and some statistics.

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Investment strategy

I like being right, I usually am right and I don’t like to explain myself to or argue with people who think they know better. Since I’m also lazy I’ve decided to just give you my investment strategy without any lengthy justification. Take it or leave it.

Making money

If you don’t mind being (called) a speculator this is what you can do to make a lot of money in the coming years:

  1. buy gold (physical coins/bars, GoldMoney.com, various ETFs, RCGLDAOPEN on GPW in Poland)
  2. buy silver (physical coins/bars, GoldMoney.com, various ETFs, RCSILAOPEN on GPW in Poland)
  3. buy precious metals mining stocks (e.x. KGHM on GPW in Poland)
  4. buy agricultural commodities
  5. buy agriculture and agriculture related stocks (e.x. Astarta and Synthos on GPW in Poland)
  6. buy Thorium and Uranium mining stocks
  7. buy BTC (BitCoin) or invest in a BitCoin earning business
  8. buy stocks of companies investing in Africa
  9. few more speculative investments…

Losing money

Remember, don’t be a sucker, don’t lend money, hence avoid:
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Filed under Economy, Education, English, Investment