- The Bitcoin ecosystem must remain stable and profitable for all agents engaged in its day-to-day operations with no extra incentive except transaction (Tx) fees.
- Long term means after year 2040, when block reward will be 0 BTC (currently at 50 BTC).
- Maximum Bitcoin Tx fee should not exceed 1% of transaction volume. Otherwise it will not be competitive with current fiat-money transaction systems.
- Miners’ expect positive average operating profit margin, so let us assume a minimum of 1%. Currently at 29% +/- 30% [i]
- Current exchange rates: BTC/EUR 8.39 and BTC/USD 10.74
Let us evaluate current long-term Bitcoin profitability in light of those assumptions and some statistics.
Culture out of economics
Right now we are living through the greatest monetary crisis in the history of the world. The crashes of 1974, 2000, 2007-2008 and more that will follow are just the symptoms of a giant government bubble that pushes whole nations into excessive debt and as a consequence into poverty. Some of us are lucky to prosper but many are not, so people seek a positive balancing force that can help them get through those tough times. Many find it in music.
Greatest bands are born in a crisis
It’s true that every decade has its own music but artists and bands that performed during 70’s and 80’s are still among the most recognized today. In recent years a new wave of artists emerged from somewhat chaotic social mass. An example below – Miss 600:
There are a lot of new bands out there, so what music did you discover recently?
Please tell :D
Still good but riskier
A week ago[i] China’s most known credit rating agency Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (Dagong for short) has announced its negative outlook for polish government bonds. Dagong maintained A and A- credit ratings for both local and foreign currency bonds respectively, but emphasised that the foreign investment structure of Poland might deteriorate in the future.
Today, some time in the morning Mt.Gox, the biggest BitCoin exchange, crashed. One of the accounts was hacked and the database with usernames, e-mails and encrypted passwords was leaked. Right now exchange is out of service and administrators try to bring it back, with better security infrastructure in place.
Is correction in silver price over?
I’m not a fortune-teller and I do not have a crystal ball so I can’t be sure, but I suspect it may still go lower. However, in my opinion if it does there are 3 more support levels on the chart.
One is at current price which is around 92 PLN and below are 65 PLN and 55 PLN.
If silver would ever get that low it would probably be the last time for the foreseeable future.
Green lines on the chart indicate buy signals and so far they are almost 100% accurate. You can look even further into the past and nearly every time when RSI broke through 30 from below and Slow Stochastic broke through 20 from below, the silver price rallied quite strongly. I’d suspect this might happen again and after that we would get some consolidation period.
Than again, you never know how much more currency governments are going to create so in short-term every thing might happen :)
Disclaimer: I own gold, silver and mining stocks so I greatly benefit if there is more demand for precious metals.